NOAA Drops Winter Forecast: Here’s What to Expect in Indiana, Kentucky, & Illinois

Bringing In My Plants for the Cold Snap

Yesterday, I brought in all my houseplants because I knew the cold front that came through after the storms on Saturday night would bring extremely chilly nights. They spent the summer on my front porch growing, and now they’re all humongous and ready to head to their winter accommodations.

I keep a grow light in my stepson’s old room, so I put down plastic leaf bags and they spend their winter just being useless houseplants. Good thing I brought them in. It was about 45 degrees when I went outside this morning, and the National Weather Service Paducah office reported that some spots got a little frost overnight.

When Does Winter Officially Start?

Though the official start of fall was on September 22, the official start of winter this year is December 21. NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, just released its winter predictions, and it looks like we’re in for an interesting season.

What are Winters Usually Like in the Ohio River Valley?

The highest recorded seasonal total is 27.8 inches during the 1977-78 season while the second highest: 26.5 inches in 1976-77. But according to the National Weather Service Paducah office, the average annual snowfall for Evansville, Indiana is about 10.4 inches per year (based on long-term climate normals from 1991–2020).

NOAA’s Winter 2025-26 Outlook

NOAA says a weak La Niña is currently present and is favored to persist through December 2025 to February 2026. Because of this La Niña influence, expectations lean toward cooler and wetter conditions here in the Tri-State.

Indiana, Kentucky, and Illinois have a 40 to 50 percent probability that the Ohio River Valley will see above-average precipitation this winter. Depending on temperatures, that could mean a lot of rain or a lot of snow in our future.

NOAA - NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

When it comes to temperatures, the northern part of the U.S. is expected to have below-average temps, while the southern half will likely be above average. Here in the middle, we’ve got “equal chances” of it going above, below, or average. In other words, they don’t really know.

How Do NOAA Forecasters Make Predictions?

NOAA predicts long-term temperatures by combining data from a variety of sources.

Our scientists thoroughly review current observations using technology such as radar, satellite and data from an assortment of ground-based and airborne instruments to get a complete picture of current conditions. Forecasters often rely on computer programs to create what’s called an “analysis,” which is simply a graphical representation of current conditions. Once this assessment is complete and the analysis is created, forecasters use a wide variety of numerical models, statistical and conceptual models, and years of local experience to determine how the current conditions will change with time. Numerical modeling is fully ingrained in the forecast process, and our forecasters review the output of these models daily. Often, the models yield different results, and in these circumstances, forecasters will determine which models perform best for the given situation or seek a blended solution.

 

How Does It Compare to Other Forecasts?

Two other major weather prediction centers have released their winter outlooks, and they’re very similar to NOAA’s.

Farmers’ Almanac 2025-26 Winter Prediction for Indiana and Kentucky

The Farmers’ Almanac is calling for a “very snowy, cold winter.” They say our region is set for a “classic winter wonderland” this year and labeled it “chill, snow, repeat.” Great.

Almanac Winter 2025-2026 Prediction for Indiana and Kentucky

The Almanac's predictions are similar. They lump us into the Ohio Valley. According to the Almanac, you should prep your snow gear early because we are going to have a chilly winter with snowy spells from December to January. Temperatures will be below normal but they also predicted that preciptiation overall will also be below normal.

AccuWeather Long-Range Winter 2025-2026 Forecast for Indiana and Kentucky

Also, according to AccuWeather, we’re in for a snowy winter.

“It can be an intense, stormy winter for areas of the country, particularly across the Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Northeast, and parts of the mid-Atlantic,” AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said.

They predict that our biggest snowstorms will come at the beginning and end of the winter season. AccuWeather also expects higher-than-normal precipitation amounts in our area, and we’re right on the edge of lower-than-average temperatures.

Takeaways

I think it's important to keep in mind that these are predictions. We will know more as the year progresses. But it's always a great idea to get prepared!

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Also, go ahead and order the things you'll need for the winter weather!